No 792 May 2007 Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R & D Nick Bloom
نویسنده
چکیده
Uncertainty varies strongly over time, rising by 50% to 100% in recessions and by up to 200% after major economic and political shocks. This paper shows that higher uncertainty reduces the responsiveness of R&D to changes in business conditions a “caution-effect” making it more persistent over time. Thus, uncertainty will play a critical role in shaping the dynamics of R&D through the business cycle, and its response to technology policy. I also show that if firms are increasing their level of R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be negative, while if firms are reducing R&D then the effect of uncertainty will be positive.
منابع مشابه
Uncertainty and the Dynamics of R&D
Uncertainty about future productivity and demand conditions varies strongly over time, rising by 50 percent to 100 percent during recessions and by 100 percent to 200 percent after major political and economic shocks. These fluctuations in uncertainty appear to generate fluctuations in investment, hiring, and productivity, because higher uncertainty generates a temporary slowdown as firms postp...
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